Forecasting App Installs for a Large Retailer in the US

CASE STUDY

Forecasting App Installs for a Large Retailer in the US

SUMMARY

Client was planning to bring in a new stand-alone app in the market which merges the different channels of the business. However, the marketing managers were not sure of the number of optimum marketing efforts that will be required to push the existing app users across BUs to install the new app. Tredence team aimed at forecasting the installs of the new app to help the client in planning the marketing budget and setting goals for the upcoming app migration in FY21

APPROACH

Tredence defined methodology to forecast the app installs across 3 marketing channels namely Organic, Owned and Paid

FB Prophet techniques to forecast the “organic” app installers.
Calculated the index using the Removal effect on Markov model on the forecasted Organic numbers to derive “owned” installs
Established relationship between paid marketing efforts and marketing spend using regression techniques and with the allocated budget numbers, predicted the paid installers

KEY BENEFITS

The forecasting can help the clients in estimating the shortfalls in installs and activity of the new app, also aid in budget allocation to new app paid marketing

RESULTS

Enhanced the marketing efforts by 30% for successful migration of all existing app users to the new app portal

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